Friday, February 11, 2011

John Banks to lead a new conservative party, he will contest Epsom!

A little birdy (I jest! It was a much much more reliable source than that... from deep within the inner workings of Wellington) told me that not only is a new conservative party being formed but also John Banks will be leading it.

BUT... the biggest piece of news of all is John Banks will be contesting Epsom! Now this has certainly been said before, for instance this NZ Herald article: Epsom tipped as place for Banks comeback

Although I thought this was always slightly unlikely? As John Banks is a much tougher political competitor than Richard Worth has been. And would National really be so silly as to risk knocking out the only political party than can rely upon to support them in forming a government? Possible but quite unlikely.

However the big twist here is an entirely new political party being formed AND contesting Epsom. Why? There are not many reasons you could explain here... other than the intention to knock out Rodney Hide and with that the whole of the ACT Party!

But perhaps with the intention to slide up the middle between the split vote between Rodney Hide and the National Candidate? With the intention of this new conservative party to take the place of ACT? Very risky, but the only thing that makes sense?!

John Banks is known as a very good fundraiser, and he is wealthy in his own right, so one thing is sure: this party is sure to be well funded for such a new party on the scene (a bit like the New Citizens Party too huh? Funded from Beijing... !). Thus the new conservative party poses a thread, to both ACT and National. ACT could get knocked out for good, and steal a few of their voters away. National could get far more voters stolen away than ACT, which would be a disaster for it if the new conservative party fails to reach 5% or win an electorate as that means wasted votes. (one of many reasons why I personally think the 5% threshold should be got rid of!)

Interesting times are ahead for sure!

PS: a word of warning to this new party, although you follow along to conservative politics, don't pick that as you party name! The last NZ Conservative Party didn't do so well.... ! And it is recent enough too that people who are not as young as I am can still have this fresh in their minds.

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