Friday, November 7, 2008

Electorates To Keep Your Eyes On

Here is my list of electorates to keep your eyes on, as you may never what surprises they could spring up.

First of all the obvious ones:

Tauranga. Winston Peters has held this one for a long time, but last election he lost it yet got back in as list MP due to NZ First breaking 5%. Thankfully this time around NZ First is unlikely to pass 5% & Simon Bridges is doing fine job campaging for National so it looks clear he will win Tauranga rather than Winston.

Epsom. Rodney Hide must win this won for ACT to survive, & arguable he must win to ensure National can form a government. He is up against National's Richard Worth, there is saying going around: "Worth is not worth it". Bit harsh, but very true that he is not worth voting for as it is of such importance Rodney wins Epsom. Luckily there is little danger of that, so no party votes for ACT will be wasted.

Wigram & Ohariu. Basically the same deal for both of these places. But different people, Jim Anderton & Peter Dunne respectively. Odds are they will win their electorate and will only support Labour or National respectively (as Peter Dunne has already came out & said he will go with National, and we always know Jim Anderton will only be supporting Labour). With both parties it is unlikely they will pick up more than one extra MP from the list, if that.

ALL the Maori seats, for obvious reasons as this is the only way the Maori Party is going to increase their number of MPs. Additionally this could have a major impact on Parliament as they may be Kingmaker/Queenmaker and they are likely to cause an overhang again (which will make it tough for National as it will increase the number of seats required for them to make a majority).

Now I've covered the obvious electorates that most people know about, here is where the real surprises might come from (but due to the nature of the fact it would be such a surprise, these results are also quite unlikely. But who knows?):

Mangere. Former Labour MP Taito Phillip Field is standing here for his new "Pacific Party". While I doubt he will win it, he does have the huge advantage of being the current sitting MP for it and having the entire backing of a "party" in helping him towards regaining. I'd be saddened if a person facing his criminal charges gets elected, but I won't completely rule out the possibility he will win. Guess we will all find out tomorrow.

Rimutaka. This is the one I worry about the most. Last election Winston Peters lost Tauranga yet still got in due to NZ First breaking 5%. This time around their party vote won't get that high as it is now entirely limited to the mentally infirm or unstable (how else can you explain it? Or more likely they are just hopeless uninformed and have been mislead by the media and NZ First). Yet if Ron Mark wins Rimutaka then Winston Peters gets back in again. NZ First / Winston Peters recognises this last gasp chance for them, he has even at one point left campaigning in Tauranga to help out Ron Mark in Rimutaka. If Winston Peters doesn't get Tauranga AND NZ First doesn't reach 5% yet Winston Peters still gets in to Parliament because of this I will be very very saddened. I've said if Winston Peters is in Parliament again by whatever means it happens, then I will spend the entire day afterwards wearing black as I'll be in mourning for NZ.

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